The crypto-driven roaring 20s are truly over for the new-GPU market, and NVIDIA, AMD, Intel better pay attention
The GPU crash seems to have particularly affected AMD the most, with NVIDIA also consuming some of the hurt (but likely protected by robust RTX 4090 sales) and Intel coming out on top as the winner (with the lowest exposure to the discrete GPU market). Here are the gory details:
Intel: Market share increased by 10.3 percentage points, shipments increased by 4.7 %. AMD: Market share decreased by 8.5 percentage points, shipments decreased by 47.6%. NVIDIA: Market share decreased by 1.87 percentage points, shipments decreased by 19.7%.
Overall the discrete GPU market (add in cards) decreased by 33% and overall GPU shipment units decreased by 10.3% quarter over quarter. While the first-hand GPU market might be in a collapse, the second-hand GPU market is alive and booming as mining GPUs flood the market bring down average selling prices of previous generation cards to extremely attractive performance per dollar figures. For eg, you can used a pre-mined RTX 3060 XC Gaming 12 GB for $99.
The GPU’s overall attach rate (which includes integrated and discrete GPUs, desktop, notebook, and workstations) to PCs for the quarter was 115%, down -6.0% from last quarter. The overall PC CPU market decreased by -5.7% quarter to quarter and decreased -by 18.6% from year to year. Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs that use discrete GPUs) decreased by -33.5% from the last quarter. This quarter saw 0.5% change in tablet shipments from last quarter.
Source: Jon Peddie Research The RTX 4080 meanwhile starts at $1200 and the RTX 4090 will set users back $1600. While these MSRPs would have been perfectly reasonable in the crypto-boom days, gamers are no longer able to stomach these for the most part (the RTX 4090 is actually quite well for the consumers that want the absolute best without looking at the price tag but the RTX 4080 is suffering the effects of stagnating demand). Speaking from a supply and demand perspective, there are a ton of GPUs available that can offer very decent performance per dollar to gamers - which is the audience that has always been around for the major IHVs - so there is no real need to upgrade to extremely expensive GPUs. Technologies like DLSS 3.0 and FSR 3.0 are working to offer a killer app (Frame Generation etc.) that could encourage consumers to cross that bridge but its reach is fairly limited as DLSS 2.0 and FSR 1.0/2.0 based alternatives are not too far behind. This ties in well to the advisory we have published time and time again as NVIDIA, AMD and Intel can either wait out the flood of cheap GPUs on the market or lower their MSRPs a bit to make their products more competitive with the wider second-hand market.
